El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs when sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal.
It can disrupt atmospheric circulation and influence rainfall and temperature patterns in different parts of the world.
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a climate pattern that also includes La Niña, its cooler phase, and neutral conditions. The phenomenon does not produce the same effects everywhere, as local weather conditions and other ocean-atmosphere processes can influence its impact.
The Nigerian Meteorological Agency has warned that the developing El Niño event could significantly affect rainfall patterns in Nigeria, particularly the length of the rainy season and when it ends.
In its Seasonal Climate Prediction Update, August 2026, and August-September-October (ASO) 2026 Rainfall Forecast, NiMet stated, “Analysis of the most recent ocean observations confirms the onset of a strong El Niño event in 2026.”
The agency added, “El Niño continues to intensify steadily and is expected to dominate global climate patterns during the August to October 2026 season.”
According to NiMet, the phenomenon is increasing the likelihood of above-normal temperatures across much of the world and driving significant shifts in rainfall patterns.
The agency described the developing event as a “super El Niño”, warning that it could have significant implications for Nigeria’s rainfall patterns.
How El Niño may affect Nigeria
NiMet’s August-to-October 2026 forecast indicated that rainfall conditions could vary across the country, with wetter-than-normal conditions expected in parts of the north and drier-than-normal conditions in parts of the south.
“Wetter-than-normal conditions are expected across the north, especially Sokoto, Kebbi, Zamfara, Katsina, Kano, Yobe, Borno, Bauchi and Jigawa states,” the agency stated.
It also forecast drier-than-normal conditions in parts of southern Nigeria, particularly Oyo, Ogun, Osun, Ekiti, Edo and Delta states. The conditions could also affect Kogi and parts of Benue State.
NiMet stated that “normal to above-normal rainfall is expected in the northern regions of the country, while in the southwest and Cross River State, rainfall totals are expected to be normal to below normal.”
“The rest of the country is likely to experience normal rainfall,” it added.
The forecast suggests that residents, farmers and businesses in the affected areas may need to prepare for changes in rainfall patterns. However, seasonal forecasts describe likely conditions over a period and do not guarantee the exact weather that will occur in every location.
Possible effects on agriculture
Changes in rainfall can affect planting schedules, soil moisture, crop development and harvests. Insufficient rainfall can leave crops without adequate moisture, while excessive rainfall can cause flooding, damage farmland and disrupt agricultural activities.
NiMet warned that below-normal rainfall could increase the risk of reduced crop yields in some areas.
It stated that “the normal to below-normal rainfall in August for Borno and Yobe states may likely increase the risk of reduced crop yields, particularly during flowering and grain filling stages.”
The agency advised farmers to avoid unnecessary fertiliser application during dry spells and recommended applying fertiliser after effective rainfall to improve nutrient uptake.
It also urged farmers to monitor their fields for “increased weeds, pests, and disease outbreaks associated with wetter conditions.”
For areas expecting above-normal rainfall, NiMet advised farmers to “keep drainage channels clear to reduce flood damage” and work closely with agricultural extension officers for guidance on farm management.
Water supply and electricity
Prolonged periods of reduced rainfall can affect the amount of water flowing into rivers, streams, lakes, reservoirs and dams. This could put pressure on water supplies for domestic use, agriculture and industry.
NiMet warned of “reduced surface water availability leading to decrease inflows into rivers, streams, lakes, reservoirs, and dams,” potentially reducing the water available for domestic, agricultural, industrial and hydropower uses.
The agency also highlighted “declining groundwater recharge particularly where groundwater abstraction is high” and warned that lower reservoir and dam levels could affect water supply schemes and irrigation systems.
Reduced water inflows could also affect electricity generation from hydropower plants. NiMet stated that “hydroelectric power generation suffers from reduced inflow,” potentially increasing reliance on thermal power generation.
The agency further warned of possible implications for national energy security, noting that increased reliance on fossil fuels could raise costs and emissions.
These are potential risks associated with reduced rainfall, rather than confirmation that water shortages or electricity disruptions will occur.
Possible health implications
Changes in rainfall and temperature can affect public health, particularly where flooding, stagnant water, poor sanitation or water shortages occur.
NiMet warned that “vector-borne diseases (malaria, typhoid) may spread faster due to altered rainfall and stagnant water.”
However, typhoid is not a vector-borne disease. According to the World Health Organisation, it is usually spread through contaminated food or water. Malaria, by contrast, is transmitted through infected mosquitoes.
NiMet also warned that extreme weather conditions could threaten food production, stating that El Niño “could trigger widespread droughts, floods and erratic rainfall that threaten food production and lead to malnutrition.”
The agency further highlighted the possibility of skin rashes and diseases during the dry season amid an unusual increase in temperatures.
The likelihood and severity of these health effects would depend on local weather conditions, public-health interventions, sanitation and access to essential services.
What Nigerians should do
NiMet called for stronger monitoring and wider dissemination of its weather forecasts to help communities and relevant authorities prepare for changing conditions.
The agency recommended the “promotion of drought-resistant crop varieties and early maturing cultivars for the minor season”, alongside strategic reservoir management and water conservation measures.
It also called for “scaling up irrigation infrastructure and rainwater harvesting” and the pre-positioning of relief supplies in areas vulnerable to extreme weather events.
Farmers should follow updated agricultural and weather advisories, while communities and relevant authorities should prepare for possible flooding or reduced rainfall according to local forecasts.
NiMet stressed the importance of enhanced monitoring and dissemination of its forecasts as the El Niño event develops. Following official updates will help Nigerians make informed decisions as weather conditions change.
